Arbitrage

How does the betting work?


A typical bet on a soccer match looks like this:

This means that if you place a £10 bet  on Chelsea, you will win

 £2.50 (£10*1.25= 12.5 -10stake=£2.5)

If you think the game will be drawn and bet on it, your £10 will win

 £45 (£10*5.50=55-10stake=£45)

The odds, which multiply the stake, are based on the probability of that outcome happening based on a number of factors. Some of them include general performance of a team, recent history of play, also individual position of a booker. The rules of supply/demand apply. The more action from the bettors the bet gets, the lower the price is and vice versa. As in the diagram example above, Chelsea is the favorite to win, so the odds and payout for bets placed on them to win are low.
Stoke City to win or to draw on the other hand are both well paid for, because the probability of that happening is low.

What's important to note is that the odds are often different between the various companies, as they receive different amounts of interest on each bet.
William Hill for example might be offering 1.25 for Chelsea to win, but Ladbrokes at the same time can be offering 1.30 etc.

What is arbitrage ?

Arbitrage is when you take advantage of the differences in bookmakers predictions (odds)
By betting on all the outcomes at the same time and using calculated stakes, you can ensure that no matter what happens in a game, you'll always be in a profit.

Here's an example:

Game: Soccer

Match: Italy vs Jamaica, International Friendly 20/11/2013 1:00am gmt+1 time

#bet1, bookmaker: : £200 for Italy to win @2.85

#bet2, bookmaker: : £170 for a Draw @3.35

#bet3, bookmaker: : £175 for Jamaica to win @ 3.25

There are 3 possible outcomes to that:

So if the first team wins, then : :

#bet1 :  £200*2.85 = 570 - 200(stake on bet1) = +370

#bet2 :  -£170

#bet3 :  -£175

Total: 370-170-175 =  + £25 net profit

Or the second team wins, then :

#bet1 : -£200

#bet2 : -£170

#bet3 :  £175*3.25 = 568.75 - 175(stake) = +393.75

Total :  393.75-200-170 = + £23.75 net profit

Or the match ends in a Draw ( 0:0, 1:1, 2:2 etc) then :

#bet1 :  -£200

#bet2 :  £170*3.35 = 569.50 - 170(stake) = +399.50

#bet3 :  -£175

Total :  399.50-200-175 = + £24.50 net profit

And that's it, there are only 3 ways the game can end. No matter which one it'd be the net profit is  ~£25  
Total amount of money used is £545, which translates into an investement with 4.5% return. Guaranteed.
The are more profitable arbitrages, that are graded by the % of their return. The average arbitrage is about 15%, but there are situations where you can get even 70%

Isin't this gambling ?

Gambling assumes a possibility of losing.
As per the example above this set of bets, makes it impossible for any of the outcomes to incur a loss.

The method is absolutely risk free.

Arbitrage takes dedication and focus. but yelds great opportunities and easy profits.

It's not for everyone, but if you can focus on it for 5 minutes at a time you're good to go.

Ok, but how ? How to calculte the value of stakes, how to find these opportunities?

There's a lot of monitoring services that allow you to find arbs. Some are better then the others.
I myself went through all of what's available, and found:

www.rebelbetting.org to be most reliable and easy to use.

The software they're providing is almost completely automated.
The list of currently available arbs is being produced every few seconds, as well as this, the autosurf/betting browser features will automatically open and log you in into the bookmakers website, find the right markets and open betslips. All you have to do is to calculate the right stakes using the provided calculator, then place the bets yourself.

The sign up offers (a.k.a Matched betting)

The best part abut exploiting the betting markets, is the fact that it revolves around gambling.
An industy that's extremely popular and highly competitive.

One of the many incentives bookmakers use to attract new customers, is to offer sign up bonuses.

Seeing that your first deposit with a particular company can be doubled up, or that you can get from£20/£50/£100 or even £200 of free bets, after you sign up, is quite enticing.

The incentive is to encourage you, as a new bettor to use the companies services, in the hope that you'll come back and use it again, which must be working :)

What happens is the bookies are actually losing money, all in an effort to draw in new customers.

The bonus itself comes with terms and conditions, and those are different from company to company, but the main points remain the same:

• You  get  the sign up bonus only once ( Meaning the offer is limited to one per person )
• The bonus and deposit have to be bet (staked) a number of times before you can withdraw it.
• Often you cannot withdraw money before you finish the rollover, doing so voids the bonus and will cost you a small fee.
• Some markets are excluded from counting as a rollover (usually AsianHandicaps and over/under)

By using arbitrage and meeting the required rollover you can easily obtain the bonuses, without any risk.

Example:

is offering a 100% deposit bonus up to £200

Which means if you deposit £200 and use a promotional code, your account receives a £400 credit.
The terms&conditions are:

1. 3. To bet with your bonus, play through the amount of your qualifying deposit once on the sports and markets of your choice. You will need to rollover your deposit and bonus 3 times prior to making a withdrawal.

In total you have to stake the deposit + bonus 3 times (3x (200+200) = £1200)
This can be done in roughly two days using arbitrages. And no risk to be taken !

(Refer to the example arbitrage at the top of this page.)

All this is relatively easy to do, as long as you have enough money to cover the "other side" of an arb.

That's just one company, many other examples can be found in the panel to the right.
You can always make use of more then one company at the same time.


Is it hard to do this?

It's good to have a basic understanding of how different markets work.
The theory behind Arbitrage is simple to understand, especially if you've seen a match played before.

It's not hard at all !

So how much money can I make?

In essence arbitrage is the safest and most reliable way to invest money.
There's no possibility of losing, just profit. And how much of a profit you'll have depends on the size of your investement. The ROI ("Return of Investement") is on average around 15-25%, with an exemption of first weeks/month, where the bonus incentives wind it up to over 100%

Other sources you can read about this are:

Matched betting @ Wikipedia
Arbitrage betting @ Wikipedia

http://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/showthread.php?t=1447788
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/forumdisplay.php?f=41
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/8185280/Is-this-a-bet-you-cant-lose.html


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Made by : Mike   Edited by : Melita Guy Mike